Studies attribute health cost slowdown to factors beyond recession.

Two studies published Monday in the journal Health Affairs, one by Harvard Medical School researchers and one by Harvard health economists, contribute further evidence to the notion that the recent healthcare cost slowdown may be about more than just the recession. Both receive considerable national coverage Tuesday, and though they are distinct studies which come to slightly different conclusions, all outlets report on them together, noting the implications the research as a whole will have on the larger healthcare debate. Several sources use the term "optimistic" when discussing them.

        The New York Times (5/6, Lowrey, Subscription Publication, 1.68M) reports on "major new studies" out of researchers from Harvard University, the Kaiser Family Foundation, and elsewhere, which have all looked into the "bigger-than-expected slowdown in health spending" from the past few years and concluded that not all of it stems from the recession. Indeed, "David M. Cutler, the Harvard health economist and former Obama adviser, estimates that, given the dynamics of the slowdown, economists might be overestimating public health spending over the next decade by as much as $770 billion." Two of these studies were released Monday in the journal Health Affairs: one by Cutler and one by Michael E. Chernew of the Harvard Medical School.

        The Wall Street Journal (5/7, Mathews, Subscription Publication, 2.29M) reports further on the two new analyses looking into the recent healthcare growth slowdown. The article quotes Chernew discussing his paper, saying, "We find a much bigger effect beyond the simple recession story. It's certainly reasonable to believe the slowdown will persist." And Cutler said of his, "It's all adding up to a story that says it looks like it's different from what we've seen in the past."

        Bloomberg News (5/7, Wayne) reports on the studies, which together indicate that the slowdown may "signal potential structural changes in the industry that could cut health-care inflation and save the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars." The article adds that the findings "will be part of the debate between President Barack Obama and Republicans over how to control spending growth for Medicare and Medicaid."

        Reuters (5/7, Begley) reports that according to the analyses, Medicare spending would be over $400 billion less than officials have predicted through 2021 and overall health spending would fall by $770 billion. This, the article points out, could greatly reduce the urgency lawmakers feel to make large reforms to government health programs.

        As the NPR (5/7, Rovner) "Shots" blog puts it, "While not solved, the growth in health spending has definitely slowed."

        The Kaiser Health News (5/7, Rau) "Capsules" blog calls the studies "optimistic," though it points out that "neither study can pinpoint what factors exactly are responsible."

        Similarly, the Health Affairs Blog (5/7, Fleming) calls the studies published in their journal "cautiously optimistic that the slowdown in health care spending is here to stay."

        Also reporting on the studies and their implications are the PBS (5/7, Kane) "The Rundown" blog and Modern Healthcare (5/7, Evans, Subscription Publication, 71K).